The excitement in the crypto market is constant, yet a giant question mark hangs over countless investor minds: we’re in a bull market, so why is the fabled “Alt Season” still a no-show? Where did it go? Or, perhaps more accurately, was it ever really here at all?
If you’ve been holding out for a widespread altcoin rally only to see their purchasing power against Bitcoin (BTC) continuously bleed, this article is for you. The answer isn’t hiding in the obscure narrative of a niche project, but in something we all experience yet often overlook: the macroeconomic backdrop.
The Macroeconomic Hand: The Culprit Behind the “Alt Season” Absence
To understand the current landscape, we must shift our gaze from the internal market charts to the broader economic picture—the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
The “Blood-Sucking” QT and High-Rate Environment A crypto youtuber offers a clear line of reasoning: under a high interest rate and Quantitative Tightening (QT) macroeconomic environment, a unique “structural bull market” emerges. In this scenario, capital tends to flow towards the core “digital gold” asset—Bitcoin—as a safe haven. As a result, we’ve seen Bitcoin not only remain resilient but also hit new highs. This isn’t a sign of extreme market euphoria, but a rational performance under specific macro conditions.
This macro climate dictates Bitcoin’s “siphoning effect.” With limited liquidity, it’s nearly impossible for the entire crypto market to experience a broad rally. Consequently, most altcoins have become the “nourishment” feeding Bitcoin’s ascent. Their capital has continuously flowed into BTC, causing the exchange rate between alts and Bitcoin (Alt/BTC pairs) to decline steadily. This is why the altcoin market has been “bleeding” since 2021.
Echoes of History: The Uncanny Resemblance to 2019 Repeatedly emphasized a strong historical evidence that this bull market is highly similar to the market in 2019. Do you recall Bitcoin’s performance back then? During a QT period, Bitcoin staged a powerful bull run, while most altcoins underperformed significantly, even as BTC was rising.
If 2021 was a mania-driven bubble fueled by retail FOMO, the current cycle feels more like a “value discovery” bull run. The participants are not the frenzied “retail traders” of yesteryear, but more patient, long-term investors. This also explains why the “Social Interest” metric (including YouTube subs, Twitter follows, etc.) is far lower than in 2017 and 2021. Without a flood of retail mania, the fertile ground for a comprehensive alt season simply doesn’t exist.
The “0.25” Curse: The Unfinished Script
In the history of crypto bull markets, there seems to be an unwritten “rule”: every major alt season only begins after the value of all major altcoins against Bitcoin (Alt/BTC pairs) touches the historical support level of 0.25.
Unreached “Bottom Territory” Despite this cycle’s long duration, the Alt/BTC pairs are still hovering around 0.35, still above the critical 0.25 support level. This unfinished “script” is likely the final piece of the puzzle for why the alt season hasn’t kicked off. Before the historical script completes, calling for an “alt season” is like sowing seeds before the rainy season.
After QT Ends: Opportunity or Trap? The Fed has announced QT will end in December. Following the historical script, when QT concludes, the market might experience a rally fueled by the influx of liquidity. It suggests this could cause a “bounce” in the Alt/BTC ratios. However, this would likely just be a “breather,” not the start of a feast.
More critically, we must learn from history. In the last cycle, when QE (Quantitative Easing) began, Bitcoin actually experienced a short-term pullback first. Therefore, even if the end of QT brings short-term relief, it doesn’t mean the cycle has peaked. We must be vigilant of short-term market volatility following the shift in monetary policy, especially in 2026, when the market could enter a “grinding” bear market phase, not a new euphoric one.
From Chasing Narratives to Mastering Cycles: An Investor’s Mindset Shift
Understanding all of this requires a fundamental shift in our investment thinking.
Embrace Data and Macroeconomics, Not Emotional Stories Rather than chasing daily narratives on social media, it’s more productive to focus on interpreting macro data and understanding cyclical patterns. The performance of Bitcoin and its dominance (Bitcoin Dominance) provides the most powerful market signal. When BTC is strong and Dominance continues to rise, the market is telling you: “Focus your attention here.”
Redefine Your Asset Allocation In the current market structure, allocating the vast majority of your capital to a core asset like Bitcoin may be a more prudent strategy than diversifying into dozens of unknown altcoins. The market structure dictates that in a trend of “capital concentration into core assets,” betting on the trend itself can lead to more certain returns. When all Alt/BTC ratios finally touch 0.25, that might be the moment for sophisticated, disciplined investors to deploy capital—not for emotional, FOMO-fueled buying and selling.
The Digital Identity Safety Net: The Invisibility Cloak for the Cyclical Investor
As we shift to a more macro-driven, rational investment strategy, a new challenge arises: how to securely and efficiently execute our multi-account, multi-platform operations? A sophisticated cyclical investor’s operations are rarely single-dimensional. To build a robust portfolio and hedge risks, we often need to operate multiple accounts across various platforms simultaneously.
A Decentralized Account System:
- Main Exchange Portfolios: On different platforms like OKX and Binance, set up separate trading accounts for BTC and major alts (ETH, SOL, etc.) to diversify risk and leverage different platform incentives.
- Data Monitoring & Research: On data platforms like Glassnode and DeFiLlama, create distinct accounts and windows to track various on-chain metrics and project dynamics, preventing analysis behavior from being linked.
- Information Source Monitoring: On Twitter or Telegram, use separate accounts to follow multiple official project accounts, industry analysts, and competitors for intelligence gathering.
- Automated Trading & Hedging: Use API interfaces and automation scripts to execute arbitrage or hedging strategies across multiple accounts.
The Risk of a Single Identity If all these operations are conducted through a single, real browser identity (same IP address, same device fingerprint), you are essentially exposing your entire investment strategy to the platforms. Any two risk control systems, if they communicate, can easily identify your linked behavior. If one account is flagged due to high-frequency trading, all your accounts (from trading to research) could face review or even suspension. This is fatal for a long-term, stable investment system.
This is precisely the “infrastructure” issue for a cyclical investor building a secure digital identity. Your core strength lies in macro-analysis and strategy selection, but the stable operation of your entire investment system depends on your ability to build a secure, independent digital identity for every “investment tool” or “research purpose.” Our product, FlashID Fingerprint Browser, is designed for this very purpose. It provides an “invisibility cloak” for you and your investment strategy.
With FlashID, you can create a completely isolated digital environment for each platform or operational purpose (e.g., “OKX Main Portfolio,” “Data Research Alt”). This means:
- Absolute Identity Isolation: Each environment has its own independent IP address, browser fingerprint, and login information. When you are analyzing an altcoin in the “OKX Research” environment, the OKX server sees a unique, random-patterned user from a specific location. When you switch to the “Binance Trading” environment, the Binance server has absolutely no way of knowing what you were just doing. This builds an impregnable “moat” around your multi-account portfolio, completely eliminating the risk of bans due to account association.
- Scaled Execution of Automated Strategies: The built-in RPA (Robotic Process Automation) feature of FlashID is key to executing complex hedging or multi-arbitrage strategies. You can write automation scripts for each FlashID environment. For example, in the “OKX” environment, you can set up a task to monitor prices and automatically place orders when conditions are met. In the “Data Research” environment, you can deploy another automation script to scrape on-chain data on a schedule. This “one environment, one strategy” model allows you, as a single individual, to securely and efficiently manage a vast and complex investment system, truly achieving exponential growth in your operational capabilities.
- A Secure Hub Across Devices: When you need to monitor the market or make quick trades on your phone’s App, the FlashID Cloud Phone provides perfect support. Each client’s cloud phone environment is identity-bound to their FlashID browser environment, ensuring consistency and security between mobile and web operations, allowing your investment decisions to be stable and secure at any time, on any device.
When you evolve from an emotion-driven retail trader to a “Cyclical Investor” armed with macro wisdom, ensuring the security of all your investment accounts and the stability of your strategy is the top priority. FlashID is the “digital identity management master” that grants you the power to operate securely, scalably, and automatically. It allows you to understand the market with macro-intelligence while your assets thrive on a solid, secure technological foundation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: The article says Alt/BTC ratios will go to 0.25, does that mean alts will crash?
A: Not necessarily. A decline in the Alt/BTC ratio means alts are losing value relative to Bitcoin. This typically happens when Bitcoin itself is still rising or consolidating. Bitcoin’s ability to “absorb money” is stronger than most alts in a bull market, increasing its purchasing power. If Bitcoin also enters a bear market and crashes, the Alt/BTC ratios might not stay at 0.25, but alts could fall even more sharply relative to BTC.
Q: If QT ends and QE begins, does that mean we can get the final major rally of the bull market?
A: There might be a “bounce,” but it shouldn’t be equated with the main bull run. Based on history (like 2019), when QT ends, market sentiment improves, but the truly comprehensive, liquidity-driven bull run (or the final frenzy) often takes some time to start after QE begins, and may involve corrections. The key is to watch for other signals like market sentiment and key technical levels.
Q: How can I verify that we are in a cycle similar to 2019?
A: You can compare two aspects: 1. Monetary Environment: Both occurred during a QT cycle. 2. Market Structure: Bitcoin’s continued strength, rising dominance, weak alt performance (relative to BTC), and low overall market social sentiment are highly similar characteristics.
Q: If Bitcoin really hits $140k, will that attract retail back and finally trigger the alt season?
A: It’s a great question, but the video suggests a negative answer. The author argues that even if BTC reaches $140k, without a flood of new retail traders (the social interest metric not spiking), the nature of this cycle is different. Without FOMO-fueled retail mania, a comprehensive alt season is unlikely. It’s more likely a top area.
Q: Is the “Four-Year Cycle” theory still valid?
A: There is a tendency to think that it is still valid, but the form may change. Somebody believes that even without a retail “euphoria phase,” the cycle’s structure (macro-driven) is still at play. Therefore, even after QE begins, Bitcoin might have a correction like last time, and the cycle continues.
Q: How should I react to the current market?
A: It’s advisable to reduce risk and abandon emotional FOMO or panic selling. Pay attention to Bitcoin’s price action and the dominance chart. If Alt/BTC ratios truly test the 0.25 support, it could be a potential, cautiously observed opportunity, but certainly not a “buy” signal. Be patient and wait for the market to give clearer reversal signals.
Q: Why can Bitcoin go up during a tightening cycle?
A: This is largely due to Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. In a global macro environment of monetary tightening and the search for safe-haven assets, as a scarce, decentralized new asset, it attracts a lot of long-term capital seeking to hedge against inflation and traditional market volatility, thus allowing it to follow its own independent price trend.
Q: As a crypto community manager, does this macro analysis affect my business?
A: It has a huge impact. When the macro trend is “capital concentrating on BTC,” your community’s activity and retention may suffer. You’ll need to adjust your content strategy, focusing more on topics that attract long-term users, like the Bitcoin ecosystem (e.g., BRC-20, Ordinals) and technological upgrades, rather than continuing to hype narratives lacking fundamental support.
Q: I am managing assets across multiple exchanges. Should I worry about my accounts being linked?
A: You absolutely should. Exchange risk control systems are very intelligent and can identify linked cross-platform behaviors, such as logging into different platforms from the same IP address with identical device fingerprints, or having highly similar fund flow patterns across platforms. Once identified as “arbitration” or “multi-account linkage” behavior, account functions may be restricted, impacting your investment strategy execution.
Q: How can FlashID help me manage the multi-account risk in crypto investing?
A: By creating completely independent digital environments (with different IPs, browser fingerprints) for your accounts on various platforms (e.g., Exchange A, Exchange B, data sites), FlashID ensures these accounts appear completely unlinked from each other’s perspective. This way, your operations on platform A won’t affect the security of your portfolio on platform B, allowing you to confidently configure multi-account strategies and hedge risks, providing the foundational digital security for your long-term investment plan.
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